Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
People lob interesting questions to us by email and in our many public presentations (yes, you can book our roadshow). Today we landed questions about the floated $2,000 tariff rebates that would be funded by the "massive" income projections. Now, the math here becomes REALLY important as does the suspension of disbelief that many of the underlying assumptions won't change. But, lets look at some numbers. First, income - over the next decade an estimated $2.5 trillion may come in. Keyword: DECADE But, it is not that simple -- it actually may be closer to $3.3 trillion gross but then net out against other retaliatory tariffs landing us somewhere in the 2 - 2.5 trillion. But again, this is over a ten year period and assumes no one tinkers with rates, spending, manufacturing, etc. (ahem, big ifs) On an annual basis, we are talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 billion in "extra" tax revenue per year (smoothed). In context, the 2025 Federal budget deficit was penciled at $1.8 trillion. So, quite a bit larger than the "extra" revenue. (billions and trillions being what they are) Now we come to the expense. $2000 to households with some form of household income limit. Not everyone will get them. In states with higher average wages, fewer people will. The expense for this would be around $600 billion. So, twice the income, so more debt. But, that would be a one-time thing, right? So, the remaining eight years of an extra $300B would be around $2.4T or just slightly more than a single year of the current annual deficit -- but over 8 years and, again, unlikely to be consistent. Bottom line here is that within the talking points the time periods get conflated taking credit for 10 years of suspect total income but talking about it as if it was all in a single year. It is like looking at buying a house today based on your projected lifetime earnings.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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